FINANZE - NEWS NEWS it FINANZE RSS Feed Generator Tassi Usa, Brexit, Inflazione UE, Mutamenti Strutturali Sembra che Powell scelga, a giudicare dal discorso di insediamento di ieri una linea di non frattura con la Yellen, (che si era fatta prudente nell'ultima parte del suo mandato) e che deciderà quindi per un aumento dei tassi a dicembre, necessario per ridare alternative di rendimento agli investitori, in particolare i fondi pensione che devono poter rimunerare i loro piani con strumenti a basso rischio e per consentire alle banche che erogano credito di prestare con profitto senza necessariamente avventurarsi su segmenti troppo rischiosi. Sulla Brexit, non si capisce come al solito niente (la May si accorda per cento miliardi ma ne pagherà cinquanta?), ma è evidente dal rafforzamento della sterlina che l'avvicinarsi di una "soluzione" quale essa sia libera il campo ad un potenziale enorme per la divisa. Oggi i dati di inflazione in area euro se deboli potrebbero aprire ad una caduta marcata dell'euro, di cui vi è grande bisogno. Sullo yen abbiamo già esposto i motivi per cui potremmo assistere a un rafforzamento importante In sintesi vi sono buone ragioni per ritenere che le divise principali avranno tutte comportamento opposto a quello mostrato nel corso del 2017. Wed, 29 Nov 2017 08:44:00 GMT Euro, to Bounce Back on Syriza Speculation will mount on a potential exit by Greece from euro which would leave the common currency stronger and BCE QE program potentially smaller. Also this week Fed will likely be less hawkish on rates, after a 20% appreciation of dollar index over the last six months. Sun, 25 Jan 2015 20:23:00 GMT Emerging Markets Correction, Somewhat Overdone External debt to Gdp in Indonesia is still less than 30% and political risk in Turkey is now widely discounted. At this level of interest rates  (and exchange rate) bonds look very attractive in Turkey while most of equity correction in South Korea is due to the indexing of Etfs, as its equity market, despite the country no longer being considered an emerging economy by IMF, is heavily weighted in EM portfolios. We would look for a rebound in those equity markets and a corresponding weakening of yen, now that debate on fiscal budget is up and running. Sun, 2 Feb 2014 17:53:00 GMT ECB, Only a Direct Intervention on Euro Can Save From Deflation Few days ago Praet suggested ECB could enter into ouright quantitative easing but under present rules that could only happen under Omt. No state in need, particularly Italy would ever want to activate the mechanism due to the conditionality thta would immediately be attached to such measures. It is not among direct objectives at ECB, but the only other way to fight deflation is to talk euro down. Verbal intervention is not always effective but it has greatly helped various countries to fight their currencies overvaluation, Japan above all. ECB should at least try. Fri, 15 Nov 2013 17:04:00 GMT Markets, What Is Going to Trigger a Major Correction "Dovish" speakers are expected to talk QE tapering projections down today but  rates do not seem to agree. 10 years yields are back at around 2.8% level, very close to the 3% limit that is considered a major trigger for bears to take control. Dollar is being weakened around 1.34 but expect next move down to 1.32 in the next few sessions. Tue, 12 Nov 2013 13:47:00 GMT Btp Italia, Senza un Taglio Bce i Tassi Non Possono Più Scendere Grande copertura medaitica per la quinta emissione del Btp scadenza 2017. Se i rapporti di copertura sono quelli già diffusi, apparentemente già il 90% è sottoscritto, non sarà molto diverso dal 2,15% il rendimento definitivo. Anche ammettendo una nuova operazione Ltro a tre anni, quindi prossima alla scadenza di questa nuova emissione, se le banche prendono liquidità al 1% difficilmente la piazzano in uno strumento di pari durata al 2% perchè con la nuova supervisione bancaria i coefficienti di patrimonializzazione tenderanno a salire e lo spazio per investire in titoli di stato a diminuire. Allora o i tassi scendono in Germania, ciò che succede solo con tagli da parte della Bce, oppure sarà impossibile che il debito italiano scenda ai differenziali di rendimento previsti dal bund in finanziaria. Giovedì la Bce è di fronte alla decisione più difficile della sua storia recente, anche se molta stampa passa la riunione come normale amministrazione: se non taglia i tassi, sarà ulteriore deflazione, se li taglia non avrà più nella Germania un alleato forte. Tue, 5 Nov 2013 09:41:00 GMT Non Farm Payrolls, QE No Longer Works Unemployment drops slightly but payrolls are disappointing. Participation rate remains at historical low yet equity markets raise in expectation of more money priniting. It is now clear the Fed action only helps banks, certainly not workers. Two thirds of jobs created are very low paid or temporary jobs, a tendency that is exacerbated by further printing of money, that goes to banks to speculate on financial markets. Tue, 22 Oct 2013 14:43:00 GMT Obamacare, Very Little interest Congress fight could only be useless if, as it seems, people really wanting to subscribe insurance policies fro the Obamacare are an underwhelming minority. True the cost of insurance is progressive, but minimum payment is probably still exceeding spending capability at many families. Without high rates of redemption, certainly above 50% the program is bound not to take off anyway. Wed, 9 Oct 2013 10:24:00 GMT ECB, Lending to Private Still in Freefall Sixteenth consecutive month of contraction in lending to private sector in the euro area. ECB, another disappointing speech this week in front of  European Parliament by Mr Draghi, seems to believe that flooding banks with yet more liquidity is better than forcing them to lending through negative deposit rates.That would damp unsustainable euro overvaluation and improve competitiveness at those entities that mostly need credit. Without acting on the exchange rate exporters at peripherals will not gain competitiveness and will find it even harder to gain access to credit. After German elections ECB would really be in a condition to take a totally different stance at its next Governing Council meeting October 2nd. Thu, 26 Sep 2013 11:05:00 GMT Stimuls vs Syria, Two Sides Of the Same Coin A diplomatic solution could be found in Syria, that would entail Russia to allow Us more commercial penetration in the region. Shale gas is proving envirmentallly unfriendly and Us is more energy dependent than commonly accepted. At G20, Russians will play the card of trying to impose further monetary stimulus to Obama, who has admittedly been playing the part of Fed in-chief. Whether carefully orchestrated or not this, as in the case of most war threats, is still a tale of economic interests Fri, 6 Sep 2013 04:13:00 GMT Us Dollar, Ripe For a Strong Rally Us Dollar has not played as a safe heaven in these days of turbulence. Sell-off in Treasuries sparked by emerging countries trying to defend their currency by selling t-bonds looks very close to the end. On the other hand, euro has been very strong ralative to the Us Dollar on the back of slightly improving economic data. That has caused flows of fund toward European peripherals, but optimism seems oddly placed in the face of political debate, particularly in taly . Auctions by italian Treasury will likely prove difficult especially on longer maturities (Wednesday 29th). If this proves correct funds will revert to the Us, possibly causing the hugest USD rally in many years. Tue, 27 Aug 2013 22:08:00 GMT Ecb vs Bundesbank Riddle, How to Kill Recovery Euro shooting up and rates on peripherals on an upward slope after Bundesbank reiterated its opposition to loose forward guidance by ECB. As a result  European central bank is now perceived by speculators as the most hawkish among the big four. Euro is now by far best performing currency among majors since beginning of the year. Any possible recovery, apart from Germany, would instead  pass through a substantial correction in currency overvaluation. Germany is  achieving better rates of growth at the expense of weaker economies: on an aggregate basis, a strong currency works against euro rebalancing, crippling, in our opinion, any chance of sustainable recovery for second part of the year. Wed, 21 Aug 2013 14:40:00 GMT German Retail Sales, No Sign Of Recovery Preliminary readings at PMi last week had investors betting on a sure recovery in second half of the year for Europe, but today's retail numbers from Germany show clearly that either last week numbers will be revised downward or recovery, if any, is not passing to consumers. There is less than two months to German elections and Merkel's rating will not change for the worst is euro is talked downward by ECB tomorrow. Draghi has really a chance to part himself from his influential colleagues and send a clear message  that no forward guidance can be positive in the absence of prompt intervention by its institution. True governments must make their part but ECB should really focus on negative deposit rates as an opportunity to revive credit. Wed, 31 Jul 2013 08:30:00 GMT Italy's Stock of Public Debt, Out Of Control New record set at slightly less than 2,080 Billion euro for italian government stock of debt, despite highest fiscal pressure in modern history. Tax burdens income more than proportionally, that in turns results in a reduction of tax revenues. In addition any opening to state-controlled companies by foireign institutions is regularly rebuffed by politicians, on self-interest, basically crimpling any possibility of modernizing Italy's old infrastarctures. Italy cannot cope with further taxation, this is likely going to be the year where the cpuntry will have to require aids. Tue, 16 Jul 2013 10:55:00 GMT Chinese GDP, More Worrisome Than Surface Chinese data match projections for a slow-down to a 7.5% growth rate in second quarter but production  slows more than proportionally signalling that a hard landing is probably in sight. Economists have a hard time reconciling bottom-up numbers, energy consumption at factories on top, with such aggregate readings, that seem overinflated. Only Chinese equity market and the value of yuan reflect the possibility of a significant deceleration, that would otherwise have world-wide consequences. Mon, 15 Jul 2013 08:37:00 GMT Central Banks Create Disequality Wealth is increasingly concentrated in the hands of few. Liquidity flooded banks do not transform money into credit and  use it to finance speculation or artifically propping-up prices of government bonds and equity markets. Tapering could have negative effect on the market but subtracting liquidity to banks is probably the only way to revive credit. Sun, 14 Jul 2013 07:50:00 GMT ECB, Emergency Measures Are Needed Tomorrow While the theory that surging equity markets promote confidence and hence an increase in comsumption is put seriously in question by crumbling Japanese equity market, one of the secondary effects that is apparently badly ignored by Eurocrats  is the unintended strengthening of the euro in an environment where every other single bloc is trying to influence the value of its own currency. Instead of trying to moderate its strength, euro area countries have now embarked in trade wars with China, on solar panels. Chances are now that China will retaliate, refusing to support European debt market, a mild promise of the recent past. Ecb seems unwilling to cut deposit rates to negative but tomorrow they will better find something else to make euro weaken or euro area will definitely enter a prolonged period of stagnation and deflation, with even direr consequences on European unemployment. Wed, 5 Jun 2013 08:26:00 GMT Euro Area, Hopeless at Managing Exchange Rate While in every other corner of the world people are busy devaluing their currency, strong pronunciations by ECB against negative rates and an higher than expected inflation reading in Germany are enough to push euro higher yet again. Germany obession with inflation is really causing tremendous damage to the subtle hopes for recoveries of weaker countries. Wed, 29 May 2013 16:59:00 GMT Fed "Tapering" Not Any Time Soon Dollar rally on consumers confidence print, better than expected, as the market implicitly assumes that this will subsititute for additional monetary stimulus. Consumer confidence is a coincidence indicator, that reflects current conditions, while manufacturing indexes, all worst than expected in the last two months, are leading indicators. We therefore think that Fed will continue its 85 billion USD monthly purchases way into 2013, possibly till the end of Ben Bernanke's term. It is quite likely that soon enough market will revert to to gold and risk related currencies such as the Australian and the New Zealand Dollar. Tue, 28 May 2013 16:42:00 GMT Gold, Short Interest at Historical High It is now general understanding that Japan exporting deflation and subpar growth in the Us will keep inflation at bay for a long time: this has caused, among other drops in the price of basic materials, depressed gold prices. Good inflation does not surge as bad inflation: the cost of oil in yen terms is at historical high, and it is is highly likely that it will stay there for a long time, while consumers expectations in Japan remain very tepid. People in the far East will start looking at some sort of hedge. Against common sense, we favour gold and the Australian dollar as the most promising asset classes for the foreseeable future. Sat, 25 May 2013 15:04:00 GMT Yen slide triggers public debt cost explosion 日元幻灯片触发公共债务成本爆炸 Ten years government debt yields have almost doubled and purchase plan by BOJ, even if very aggrressive, will not suffice to counteract such trend. Japanese would be better talking the yen up or debt will soon become unmanageable 十年的政府债务收益率几乎增加了一倍,由央行购买计划,即使非常积极的,并不足以抵消这种趋势。日本将更好地说,日元或债务很快就会变得难以控制. Wed, 10 Apr 2013 20:47:00 GMT Yen, A Battle With no Winners 日元,戰鬥沒有贏家 Much of the proclaimed intentions expressed by Mr Abe are based on wishful thinking. Japan will not be able to increase tax revenues due to the forecasted acceleration of GDP by almost one percentage point. That in turn would bolster inflation and weaken yen. Welfare is being cut dramatically, which will make elderly people reluctant to keep funding the enormous government debt. Numbers coming from Toyota last night show that companies that have a good business model can still prosper. Debasing currency will also find enemies in Europe, a market of groowing importance for Japan. This attitude has also revived the ambitions of other nations, among others Swizetrland. The net effect of this currency war will be to put Europe in yet a more difficult crisis. This will backfire against Japan. This propaganda should stop now. 安倍晉三表示所宣稱的意圖的基礎上一廂情願的想法。日本將不能夠增加稅收由於對forecastedan加速國內生產總值的近1個百分點。這反過來會增強通貨膨脹,削弱日元。福利正在急劇下降,這將使得老人不願意,以保持資金的龐大的政府債務。來自豐田昨晚的數字表明,有一個好的商業模式的公司,仍然可以蓬勃發展。貶低貨幣,也找到敵人,在歐洲,日本市場的groowing重要性。這種態度也恢復了其他國家的野心,其中包括Swizetrland。該貨幣戰爭的淨效應將是把歐洲的一個比較棘手的危機。這會適得其反,共同抗日。現在應該停止這種宣傳。 Mon, 28 Jan 2013 17:17:00 GMT Yen Fall, Unwarranted 日元下降,无端 Steep fall for the Japanese Yen on speculation that elections due December 16th will se opposition's victory and a further pressuring on Bank of Japan to add to Quantitative Easing. Future likely Prime minister, Abe had that post in 2006/2007, and the tenure of that government was not really different from any other of the last decade: pointed with slow progress both on debt and growth. Quantitative Easing workes no longer, as recent programme by Fed is showing. For structural reforms any government now need at least two years of strong bipartisan backing. Speculating now against yen is really dangerous, especially for Japan, that is implicitly encouraging its citizens to take money abroad at a time of new financing needs, at a time when the two coalitions do not seem well disposed to joint efforts on structural reforms. 12月16日到期的选举本身反对派的胜利,进一步施压日本央行量化宽松的猜测日元的急剧下降。将来可能的首相,安倍晋三,后在2006/2007年度,政府的任期是不是真的不同于任何其他在过去十年进展缓慢,债务与经济增长:指出。量化宽松货币政策workes不再,最近的计划是,由美联储。任何政府进行结构改革现在需要至少两年的两党的大力支持。兑日元的投机现在是非常危险的,尤其是对日本来说,这是含蓄地鼓励公民拿钱在国外一个新的融资需求,在一个时间时,两个联盟似乎不韦勒配置结构改革的共同努力。 Thu, 15 Nov 2012 09:54:00 GMT Japan Should Abandon Intervention Plans Lots of rumors as to the size of possible new repurchases of government securities by Boj next week and the setting of growth and interest rates targets, as in the case of US, have sent yen spiraling down in the last couple of weeks. It is quite possible that Europe will fall into a liquidity trap in the next few weeks, banks at risk and Spanish provinces have no way to gain access to ESM intervention. Any intervention to further weaken yen would result in yet more pain in Europe, without helping Japanese exports to the region. Tue, 23 Oct 2012 17:53:00 GMT Yen, To Appreciate Against Us Dollar 日元兑美元 Yen has recently depreciated against dollar while US Dollar Index has weakened against major currencies. Rumors have spread that Us and Japan would have agreed on a floor of 77 yen against US dollar, but in our opinion reasons for recent weakness are mostly linked to liquidity. Japan is surpassing China as the biggest Us creditor, purchase of US Treasuries by Japanese has recently accelerated, and markets have been particularly buoyant relative to fundamentals, a factor that traditionally links to a weakening yen. in addition a strong yen is helping Japanese looking into possible acquisitions abroad as in the recent case of Sprint acquisition by SoftBank. A combination of likely weaker equity markets going forward, reduced inflation expectations in the US and shrinking outflows from peripheral bonds will likely help resuming upward pressure on yen.最近日元对美元贬值,而美元兑主要货币指数。谣言传播,我们和日本已经同意的77日元兑美元汇率在地板上,但在我们看来,近期的疲软原因大多与流动性。日本超越中国作为美国最大的债权人,购买的美国国债由日本最近加快,而市场也有特别畅旺相对于基本面的因素,传统上日元的疲软。此外,日元的强势帮助日本在最近的Sprint收购软银国外寻找可能的收购。可能疲软的股票市场前进的结合,降低了通货膨胀预期在美国和收缩外围债券的流出将可能对日元继续上涨的压力 Sat, 20 Oct 2012 10:24:00 GMT Spanish Banks Stress Test. Will Anyone Believe Results?  The government badly needs to come out with reduced capital requirements to reallocate resources to the public sector, will the combination of rethoric for the presentation of Finance Bill by Rajoy and a likely "reassuring" outcome of a not so stressfull stress-test succeed in convincing investors? Probably yes, for a short period of time. Can-kicking works sometimes for the markets, but always plays against real economy. Thu, 27 Sep 2012 14:19:00 GMT 欧洲需要一个更弱的欧元 最初的热情之后,它现在很清楚,欧洲央行计划将不会导致任何地方,如果较弱的国家,尤其是意大利和西班牙,不放弃的自主性财政支出的一部分。如果政府债务的收益率再次上升和欧元大幅减弱,这只能发生。任何进一步的紧缩措施,这两个国家需要更好的竞争力,与高失业率只能来自于汇率贬值。尽管美联储QE3市场,应该积极卖出欧元,如果他们要看到积极的步骤,向欧洲财政一体化 Tue, 25 Sep 2012 11:51:00 GMT Euro Rescue, Qe3 Complicates Efforts Talks on a possible Spainsh bail-out are once again favouring risk assets, but it is very unlikely that Spain will ask aids that would be conditional to further sacrifices for the population, pension freezing is one of the topics on the table. This is even more true now that Euro has appreciated 8% against dollar over the last few weeks. "Internal devaluation" the process of regaining compettiveness through lower labour cost is even more painful now. QE3 works against any euro effort, possibly triggering a currency war as Brasilian finance minister Mantega points out. Also BCE promised intervention is conditional to Spain bailout. That is not possible if Germany does not substitute Spain through increased guarantees to the ESM. But that would require raising the maximum limit that German High Court has recently imposed to German commitment. Equity markets are betting on something that it is not likely to happen. While QE3 will likely support US equity market for sometime, investors who took advantage of recent European equity rally should consider a quick cash-in. 一个的可能Spainsh保释的会谈再次有利于风险资产,但ITI是不太可能,西班牙将要求艾滋病是有条件的人口更多的牺牲,养老金冻结在桌子上的议题之一。这是更真实,在过去的几周内,欧元兑美元已升值8%。 “内部贬值”的过程中,的恢复compettiveness通过较低的劳动力成本是更痛苦的了。QE3的作品对任何欧元区的努力,可能引发货币战巴西财政部长曼特加指出。此外,BCE承诺是有条件的干预西班牙的救助。这是不可能的,如果德国不取代西班牙通过增加担保的ESM。但是,这将需要提高的最高限额,德国高等法院最近颁布德国承诺。股票市场下注,这是不太可能发生的事。虽然QE3可能会支持美国股市了一段时间,,趁着最近欧洲股市反弹的投资者应考虑快速现金。 Fri, 21 Sep 2012 12:16:00 GMT Why Should German Court Impose True Conditionality to ESM Spain wants to hear first what are the additional rules that, according to Mr Rehn, UE would impose to a single state to access ECB help-line for reducing the cost of debt, Monti and his finance minister state that under no condition Italy would accept further monitoring. ECB proposal carries a highly political connotation and an implicit disclaimer: "we would be there to help but not telling you at what conditions we hope you will not ask for support". German high court should in our opinion say yes to Esm but clearly define conditions that at least Germany would demand for further support. Otherwise  Draghi's plea will have no material consequence. Mon, 10 Sep 2012 17:17:00 GMT ECB and the Conditionality Issue 欧洲央行和条件限制发行 It could take time for the market to realize, but for all the fuzz about today's BCE press conference, one thing the market seems to ignore is that no purchase of either Spanish or Italian debt will be in place if first the two states do not access to EU help-line. May-be initial reaction to Draghi's words will be positive but it should be noted that unless spreads on the debt of both countries fall dramatically for purely market-driven mechanisms, Spain and Italy will still have to request aid. Italian politicians will resist the process that would finally dent into public expenditures. The process is going to be all but smooth. 这可能需要一段时间的市场来实现,但所有的绒毛关于今天的BCE按会议,1东西的市场似乎忽略的是,没有购买,无论是西班牙或意大利的债务将是在地方,如果第一次的2的状态也没有访问欧盟的求助热线。五月德拉吉的话是最初的反应是积极的,但应注意,除非传播急剧下降纯粹以市场为导向的机制,西班牙和意大利将srtill请求援助。意大利的政客们将抵制的过程,最终会削弱到公共支出。这个过程将是所有,但光滑。 Thu, 6 Sep 2012 09:10:00 GMT Bce Should Listen To Weidmann 欧洲央行应该听取联邦银行 Peculiar attack by Italian financial newspaper "il Sole24Ore" to the alleged populism of the Germans and their willingness to revert to Mark. Germany has made giant mistakes in this crisis, giving in to Scheuble and his approach that recalls the thesis of Schumpeter on creative destruction, the one according to which people have to suffer for "redemption."Only recently, perhaps conscious of the failure of the economic theories of her finance minister, Merkel has begun to admit that the problem, both in Greece and in Italy relies to the malfunctioning of the public system. Now it is also clear, from the meetings of the Chancellor with Monti and Samaras, that at this point the Germans are betting, with their intransigence towards "ad hoc" measures, at their ability to affect the mechanism of corrupt politics, especially in Italy.Autonomous push for change does not exist,  Monti knows that without the support of traditional politics, his government would soon go home.The boost could come from the citizens through a referendum, but the country is too disgregated to rely on a common effort.Without an effort, either independently or  through a fast adhesion to  support mechanisms, Italy will still reach in a few months to an unsustainable situation, only with less bargaining power.  Should ECB promote anti-spread mechanisms at its next meeting, before  any process of political convergence that must see Germany as a protagonist, it will have helped Italian politicians and condemned Italy to periphery.Peculiar attack by Italian financial newspaper "il Sole24Ore" to the alleged populism of the Germans and their willingness to revert to Mark. Germany has made giant mistakes in this crisis, giving in to Scheuble and his approach that recalls the thesis of Schumpeter on creative destruction, the one according to which people have to suffer for "redemption."Only recently, perhaps conscious of the failure of the economic theories of her finance minister, Merkel has begun to admit that the problem, both in Greece and in Italy relies to the malfunctioning of the public system. Now it is also clear, from the meetings of the Chancellor with Monti and Samaras, that at this point the Germans are betting, with their intransigence towards "ad hoc" measures, at their ability to affect the mechanism of corrupt politics, especially in Italy.Autonomous push for change does not exist,  Monti knows that without the support of traditional politics, his government would soon go home.The boost could come from the citizens through a referendum, but the country is too disgregated to rely on a common effort.Without an effort, either independently or  through a fast adhesion to  support mechanisms, Italy will still reach in a few months to an unsustainable situation, only with less bargaining power.  Should ECB promote anti-spread mechanisms at its next meeting, before  any process of political convergence that must see Germany as a protagonist, it will have helped Italian politicians and condemned Italy to periphery.意大利金融报纸的“IL Sole24Ore”的所谓民粹主义的德国,并表示愿意恢复到标记的特殊攻击。德国在这场危机中已经取得了巨大的错误,让在的Scheuble和他的方法,回顾论文熊彼特的创造性破坏,一个人有以苦为“赎回”。直到最近,也许是意识到她的财政部长的经济理论的失败,默克尔已经开始承认,公共系统失灵的问题,无论是在希腊和意大利的依赖。现在,它也清楚,从会议的总理蒙蒂和萨马拉斯,在这一点上德国人投注,对“临时”措施的顽固立场,他们有能力影响政治腐败的机制,特别是在意大利。自治推动变革不存在,蒙蒂知道,没有传统政治的支持,他的政府将很快回家。升压来自公民通过公民投票,,但国家实在是太disgregated依靠共同的努力。没有努力,单独或支持机制,通过一个快速的附着力,意大利仍然会在几个月内达到不可持续的情况,只能用较少的议价能力。  如果欧洲央行推动的反扩散机制在其下一次会议之前,任何政治收敛的过程中,必须看到德国作为主角,它会帮助意大利政治家和谴责意大利的外围。 Sun, 2 Sep 2012 14:23:00 GMT Things Bernanke Did Not Say 伯南克没有说的事情 It was not much what emerged from Bernanke's words, but the market seemed to decide that a new round of quantitative easing is just around the corner. As it is often the case, media expand on often laconic comments by central bankers to draw conclusions that are all but warranted. What Bernanke did not say is that Fed would still warrant an extended period of exceptionally low rates; some members of Fed Committee believe that this could start having deflationary consequences. We do not expect a new round of QE will be announced at next Fed meeting; BCE might have disappointed  on September 6th and Fed meeting will coincide with decisions from Germany on the permanent rescue fund. Contrary to Bernanke's opinion, there is growing concern among other members of the Committee that unemployment might have structural rather than cyclical explanations.  If that is the case it is only when Europe eventually will embark on a process of political convergence that unemployment could start dropping, both in Europe an the US. 这不是从伯南克的话,但市场似乎决定了新一轮的量化宽松政策是指日可待。由于它是经常发生的情况,媒体扩大往往是简洁的注释央行行长得出结论,但保证。伯南克没有说的是,美联储将继续保证长时间异常低的利率,联邦储备委员会的一些成员认为,这可能开始有通货紧缩的后果。我们并不期望在下周美联储会议将宣布新一轮的量化宽松政策,BCE9月6日和美联储会议一致决定从德国的永久救助基金可能会感到失望。相反,伯南克认为,有越来越多的关注,委员会的其他成员,失业率可能有结构性的,而不是周期性的解释。如果是这样的话,只有当欧洲最终将走上政治收敛的过程中,失业率可能开始下降,无论是在欧洲和美国。 Sat, 1 Sep 2012 08:14:00 GMT Jackson Hole, Draghi Clears His Presence "Too busy working" Draghi cancels at short notice his presence at the symposium. Two in our opinion the conclusions: 1) There is no joint effort between the Fed and the ECB. Bernanke attends to the meeting and if there was common planning between the two central bankers this would have been a good chance to prove it. 2) If Draghi is not in a position to bring forward a program to purchase securities on peripheral countries on that occasion all the more  we believe it should not occurr at the meeting to be held Spetember six by ECB, where the majority shareholder, representative of the Bundesbank would oppose such measures. Never in the history of a central bank the opinion of the majority has been neglected. It really seems that the market has built a castle in the air which will likely come down ballooning. “工作太忙”德拉吉在短时间内取消他出席了座谈会。两个在我们看来的结论:1)美联储和欧洲央行之间有没有共同的努力。伯南克出席​​会议,如果两者之间的央行行长共同规划,这将鸭舌一个很好的机会来证明这一点。2)如果德拉吉是不是'中的位置提出一个计划,购买证券周边国家在那个场合,我们更相信,它不应该occurr在会议上Spetember6日举行,其中大股东,代表欧洲央行德国央行(Bundesbank)将反对这些措施。从来没有在历史的央行的多数意见已被忽视了。这真的似乎市场已经建立了一个空中楼阁,这可能会回落气球。 Wed, 29 Aug 2012 15:15:00 GMT 瑞士法郎,1炸弹 请注意,在欧元地区唯一的焦点,但未能削弱瑞士坦率瑞士出口商将很快导致绝望的情况。这反过来将回荡在瑞士的金融体系,削弱了大规模的外流。集中在少数机构无法提供进一步的援助 瑞士的中央银行。如果欧元对瑞士法郎的正常水平不恢复(约1.500,其主要业务伙伴的 共同利益将得到遏止。联合干预发展必须尽快 Thu, 6 May 2010 00:00:00 GMT 人民币汇率,一个景观,山羊 在过去的一年,在金融市场上大多不可持续stimula来说,西方一直指责只允许以低于潜在增长率保持 人民币汇率人为压低中国。中国的竞争优势已通过努力工作和对西方的竞争 力相对较低的相当一部分取得源于低效的劳动力市场。如果中国屈服于压力,西方是永远不会解决影响的文化,是越来越过时的结构性问 题。 Mon, 5 Apr 2010 00:00:00 GMT 中国和欧洲必须进行合作,美元走强 欧元和日元已经影响了美元下跌首当其冲的一点是,现在是在中国的利益也有stornger美元。货币不平衡只是加剧的贸易摩擦将不可避免地带来了欧洲的中国商品的进口量下降,如果不削弱欧元相当。通过采取降低欧元的合作,中国将有助于减轻压力,升值本国货币 Tue, 20 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT US Dollar, other people's problem EU export slump in August (-5.4%) cannot be attributed to companies slowing activity during summer holidays. Slower economic activity impacts accordingly on imports of foreign goods. Next Monday EU finance ministers will meet to discuss dollar weakness, but, as Juncker suggested, "the poem", that is the official statement will remain pretty much the same, only to confirm that no help on the matter is coming from the other side of the Atlantic.Despite the official mantra according to which different regions would be co-operating at easing current economic crisis, Americans blame the Chinese for the strength of Yuan while Europeans spot US Dollar weakness as the main source of problems.As the decisive improvement in UK recent economic data shows (London has recently surpassed New York as the main financial spot), a weak exchange helps economies with large foreign trade but currency distorsions only aggravate global imbalances.It is time for the ECB to aknowledge its responsibilities in letting the euro trade at unrealistic levels. Sat, 17 Oct 2009 00:00:00 GMT 英利绿色能源 YINGLI GREEN ENERGY 中国公司股票大幅上涨,在过去的几个月里,由于新的乐观态度。在英利的情况下,这相当于另有大量向下修订预测盈余。目前其股价已销售约30倍2009年盈利和该公司高度杠杆。虽然大部分的债务是巴克由政府担保。 Sat, 6 Jun 2009 00:00:00 GMT 美元,中方不能使它能够大大降低 中国官员已多次重申美元作为主要储备货币在今后几年里,这不应该感到意外的惊人数量的美国国债,这会是市场资金的预算赤字将导致崩溃的实际价值中国股票的美国政府债券。无论是股市将继续上涨或不,这是的最佳利益,中美双方和稳定,我们认为美元对高比1日晚闭幕的水平。 Sun, 10 May 2009 00:00:00 GMT Sterling, poised to run after Budget Budget presented by Mr Darling will bring public deficit to well above 12% of GDP, through a mix of measures that will boost employment, reduce further energy dependance and foster health care.Fiscal stimulus will be partly financed by a hike in highest incomes tax rates, to 50%. Many have blamed the document for its "socialism" but it is the most comprehensive attempt so far to deal with inequality.UK banking system has proved to be in better shape than its EU or US counterparts and the ratio of public debt stock to GDP will also stabilize at a lower rate than any where else among major blocks.As in a beauty contest where the least ugly prevails, sterling will likely ouperform all major currencies in the near future. Thu, 23 Apr 2009 00:00:00 GMT Sohu/搜狐 Sohu.com公司(搜狐)是一个互联网公司,提供中文新闻,信息,娱乐和通信。公司的业务包括广告业务和非广告业务。其广告业务包括品牌广告和赞助搜 索服务。搜狐的非广告业务主要包括在线游戏和无线增值服务。该公司的广告业务提供内容,向用户免费提供广告服务的广告客户在其基质的中文网站内容包括 ,大规模门户网站和网络媒体的目的地; ,游戏信息门户; ,一个房地产网站; ,网上校友录,和 ,互动的搜索引擎。该公司经营两个大规模多玩家在线角色扮演游戏(大型网络游戏) ,田垅仈不( TLBB )和刀片在线(薄) 。 结束的财 年的2008年12月31 , Sohu.com公司的总收入为429.1M美元, 188.9M 。收入净额控制。欢声笑语。总计为158.6M ,从3500万美元。收入增加了在品牌广告销售显着增加的收入来自在线游戏和更高的收入来自无线及其他。净收入反映减少无形资产摊销和较高的利息收入和汇 兑差额。 Fri, 3 Apr 2009 00:00:00 GMT USD/EURO, huge rebound to be expected After last week huge sell-off, originated by various measures of quantitative easing by the Fed - its balance sheet. will roughly total 4 Trillion dollar by year end, slighgtly less than one third Us Gdp- it looks as if Bce is now under increasing scrutiny to adopt equivalent measures. Weber, the once hawkish member of Bundesbank and one of the main culprit for the delay at which Europe has started dealing with this crisis, is now pressing for further cuts in interest rates, presumably worried by the very weak performance of German economy. Further contraction means decreasing fiscal revenues and yet more balooning budget deficits.We would therefore expect the Euro to return very briefly below 1,30 to subsequently approach l,20 by year end. Tue, 24 Mar 2009 00:00:00 GMT G20, pressure off from China/20国集团,压力来自中国 Eventually US administration comes to realize that in current circumstances blaming China for Yuan exchange rates can only bring to harsh criticism by China about Us fiscal discipline. America badly needs China for financing its public debt; two main prerequisites for that to keep happening is that US public debt starts decreasing at an appreciable pace and that currency exchange imbalances start to be addressed also elsewhere. Euro should depreciate massively as well as Yen, while Sterling should appreciate considerably. Relative exchange rates should be dealt with at a global level, no wonder otherwise that China regularly rejects criticism on yuan fixed exchange regime.来自美国政府最终认识到,在目前的情况下指责中国人民币汇率只能把严厉批评了中国关于我们的财政纪律。美国迫切需要中国的融资其公共债务;两个主要先决条 件,要继续发生的是,美国开始减少公共债务在可观的步伐,并开始汇率失衡问题也必须解决其他地区。欧洲应该贬值以及大量日元,英镑应该升值很大。相对汇率 应处理在全球一级,难怪否则,中方经常拒绝批评人民币固定汇率制度。 Sat, 14 Mar 2009 00:00:00 GMT Australian dollar, big buying opportunity Markets have recently traded currencies based on relative interest rates. On Friday Australian monetary authorites have hinted at a stabilizaton in interest rates. Market is discounting at least another one point drop in official discount rate. Possible change in perception should give Australian dollar a great boost. This should hold true particularly against Euro: while Australia has anticipated a drop in business cycle, ECB is widely believed to be way behind the curve. The combined effecy should be very positive for the Aussie. Sun, 22 Feb 2009 00:00:00 GMT Yingli Green Energy/英利绿色能源 Chissà se l'ennesima conferma da parte di questo produttore cinese di pannelli fotovoltaici varrà a riportare pian piano il titolo verso prezzi più ragionevoli.Il quarto trimestre ha visto utili netti di 12 centesimi, migliori delle aspettative nonostante l'euro più debole nei confronti dello yuan (l'azienda vende parecchio in Europa).Per l'anno in corso l'azienda prevede di vendere tutta la propria capacità produttiva (550/600 megawatt); ad oggi ne ha fatturati ben più della metà. L'azienda stima inoltre che i prezzi di vendita dei pannelli scenderanno di un ulteriore 10/15% nel corso del primo trimestre ma i costi del silicio, utilizzato per la produzione dei pannelli,di un 20/25%. Su una stima che a noi pare molto conservativa il titolo vende a poco più di sei volte gli utili.Il titolo non appare nella selezione Top 100 perché troppo piccolo per capitalizzazione rispetto ai parametri che ci siamo imposti.我不知道是否又一次证实了这一点从中国制造的太阳能光伏板会慢慢使标题更合理的价格。 第四季度的净盈利12美分,优于预期,尽管欧元走软,兑人民币(该公司销售了大量在欧洲) 。 本 年度该公司预计将出售其所有的生产能力( 600分之550 MW ) ,但现在已被控有一半以上。该公司估计,销售价格的小组将进一步降低10-15 % ,第一季度,但硅成本的用于生产的面板,一个20/25 % 。估计这对我们来说非常保守的销售冠军,刚刚超过6倍的利润。 标题没有出现在100强的选择,因为它们太小,资本的参数相比,我们实行。 Tue, 10 Feb 2009 00:00:00 GMT Yanzhou Coal Mining/兖州煤业 Tra i principali produttori di carbone del paese, la società ha un livello di debiti quasi nullo e numeri veramente interessanti. Nonostante la congiuntura fosse già non brillante, nei primi nove mesi del 2008 la società aveva visto crescere le proprie vendite del 71% rispetto all'anno precedente. Sebbene abbia di recente abbassato le stime di redditività per tutto il 2008, ha però lanciato un programma di riacquisto delle azioni proprie, segno di fiducia del management nella società. Ai prezzi attuali il dividendo per il 2008 è del 4%. Come per tutti gli altri titoli non in area euro che seguiamo, la società è quotata negli Stati Uniti, cui si riferisce il simbolo nella lista top 100, attraverso una ADR (si veda il glossario).兖 州煤业股份有限公司(兖州煤业)主要从事地下煤炭开采,准备和加工,销售和铁路运输的煤炭。该公司是由两个业务部门:煤炭开采和煤炭铁路运输。兖州煤业经 营六个煤矿,在兴隆庄煤矿,鲍店煤矿,南屯煤矿,东滩煤矿,济宁二煤矿(济宁二)和济宁三煤矿(济宁三) ,以及一个区域的铁路网络,这些地雷的联系与国家铁路网。该公司的主要产品有低硫煤炭,这是适用于大型发电厂动力煤。该公司的母公司及最终控股公司是兖矿 集团有限公司,国有企业在中华人民共和国。 九个月截止9月30日2008年,兖州煤业股份有限公司的收入增长了71 %至RMB20.42B 。该公司的净所得总计RMB6.65B ,从RMB1.83B 。收入较高的销量反映,由于强劲的市场需求。净收入期间也受益于较高的毛利润率和投资收益显着增加,以及较高的非营业收入,减少非经营性开支。 Tue, 3 Feb 2009 00:00:00 GMT 中国和美国必须共同采取行动 很多预计总统奥巴马,但中国和日本现在的第三和第二的经济体在世界上。更为均衡的汇率应优先事项之一。中国应该让人民币汇率波动和日本不应该再等待要求联合干预的三个主要经济体,削弱日元。大量的杠杆交易的基础上利用了过去所谓的套利交易。其平仓现在应该有序。 Wed, 21 Jan 2009 00:00:00 GMT 中国联通 中国联通(香港)有限公司,原中国联通有限公司,是一家投资控股公司。连同其附属公司主要从事移动通信业务的全球移动( GSM )的31个省,自治区,直辖市通过在中国联通有限公司,提供国际和国内长途电话,数据和互联网服务,以及其他相关电信增值业务。 九 个月截至2008年9月30号,中国联通(香港)有限公司的总收入增长3 %至RMB52.48B 。纯收入来自持续经营业务增加了17 %至RMB5.31B 。收入反映了较高的收入来自GSM业务,增加收入的数据和互联网业务和更高的收入从长途电话业务。净收入也反映增加的财政收益,其他收益较高的税收和减少 开支。 Sun, 18 Jan 2009 00:00:00 GMT 中国铝业股份有限公司 中国铝业股份有限公司有限公司是一家中国的制造商和运营商的铝。该公司主要从事开采,精炼及冶炼铝。 九 个月截止9月30日2008年,中国铝业股份有限公司有限责任公司的收入下降了7 % , RMB58.69B 。该公司的净收入为72 % ,下降到RMB2.58B 。收入的减少反映在销售,由于原材料成本提高。净收入期间也遭受形式增加销售和总务及行政费用,以及较高的财务费用。 Traduci Wed, 14 Jan 2009 00:00:00 GMT 石油天然气股份有限公司 石油天然气股份有限公司(中石油)是一个生产原油和天然气在我国。该公司从事了一系列的石油和天然气有关的活动,包括勘探,开发,生产和销售的原油和天然 气的炼制,运输,储存和销售的原油和石油产品的生产和销售基本石油化工产品,衍生化工产品及其他化工产品,以及传输和储存原油,成品油和天然气,以及出售 天然气。几乎所有的原油和天然气储量和生产有关的资产驻华。在这一年12月31日结束2007年,中石油完成收购余下的兴趣,锦州石化股份有限公司(锦州 石化) ,辽河金马油田股份有限公司(辽河金马)和吉林化学工业股份有限公司(吉林化学品) 。 在2008年4月28日,该公司签订 了收购协议,中国石油天然气集团公司( CNPC ) ,根据该宣言,由中油集团收购东北检查,保养和维修业务部的石油。根据股权转让协议,与CNPC月2007年3月18日,中石油出售其70 %股本权益在全国联合石油有限公司(中联油) ,以中石油。 Sun, 11 Jan 2009 00:00:00 GMT