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Fed "Tapering" Not Any Time Soon

Dollar rally on consumers confidence print, better than expected, as the market implicitly assumes that this will subsititute for additional monetary stimulus. Consumer confidence is a coincidence indicator, that reflects current conditions, while manufacturing indexes, all worst than expected in the last two months, are leading indicators. We therefore think that Fed will continue its 85 billion USD monthly purchases way into 2013, possibly till the end of Ben Bernanke's term. It is quite likely that soon enough market will revert to to gold and risk related currencies such as the Australian and the New Zealand Dollar.

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